The Coronavirus thread

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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Doctor Congo @ Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:08 pm

Dirk wrote:I read it properly.

So you put the loss of money over personal health. Of yourself and your wife and of course others

Of course you are not alone. Everyone does. Nothing wrong with that. But it is then hypocritical to criticise the govt for balancing the economy and health.

It is an easy to criticism to make "health is more important than money". But none of us make personal choices that way; health and safety legislation doesn't work that way. It is always a balance.

So at that time your personal balance was actually much the same as the govt. The pandemic is here, at some point we will have to lockdown, but at the moment the costs outweigh the benefits.
Total bullshit. You clearly didn’t read it nor any of the other references which prove without doubt the government have failed and as a consequence of their failures 10s of thousands have died needlessly.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Dirk @ Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:15 pm

I think the govt made many mistakes, though how much is the govt itself, how much the advisers and how much is PHE or even NHS is hard to say in some cases. But there is a lot of criticism is with the befit if hindsight.

Clearly in hindsight it would have been better to lockdown earlier.clearlu we knew it was coming. But with what a lot of the scientists were saying at the time -like this hyped paper of the 6th, it was to avoid the NHS being overrun like Italy. That was the reason being cited on here too

That was achieved.

So it is only with hindsight that people are suggesting different as far as I can see
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Doctor Congo @ Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:25 pm

Dirk wrote:I think the govt made many mistakes, though how much is the govt itself, how much the advisers and how much is PHE or even NHS is hard to say in some cases. But there is a lot of criticism is with the befit if hindsight.

Clearly in hindsight it would have been better to lockdown earlier.clearlu we knew it was coming. But with what a lot of the scientists were saying at the time -like this hyped paper of the 6th, it was to avoid the NHS being overrun like Italy. That was the reason being cited on here too

That was achieved.

So it is only with hindsight that people are suggesting different as far as I can see
Actually it’s quite easy to say but you’re incapable of it because of your blind devotion.

At the actual fcuking time of the crisis happening is not hindsight people were telling the govt they were wrong on ppe, ie what was required, the lack of resources the failure to procure etc, wrong on testing too slow to get things moving and to resource adequately. Then there were and continue to be the stream of lies. 100k tests you say?

In case you haven’t noticed we’ve had more deaths than Italy or any other country in the EU. The only reason and I emphasise only reason hospitals weren’t overrun was nothing to do with the government and everything to do with how healthcare workers reorganised themselves to accommodate the anticipated influx of patients and how the public initially responded to a lockdown too late.

It’s very easy to say it’s the governments fault because it is.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Dirk @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:10 am

BY all means let us debate this, but let us do so on facts and evidence rather than just asserting it was wrong

PPE - despite all the hullabaloo, the evidence is that NHS workers suffered no more infections or death rate than would be expected for general population when corrected by age and sex. Therefore the evidence (rather than prejudice or opinion) is that sufficient PPE was provided to the NHS. Not what they asked for or wanted but sufficient. That may be partially luck, but nevertheless, the provision of PPE to NHS did not on the evidence cause any increase in infections or deaths.
Where the government did make a mistake was in leaving the provision of PPE to care home workers to the care homes. With the benefit of hindsight it is clear to see that had some been provided there, it would have been very beneficial. But no-one was clamouring for that at the time. Indeed the very clamour of the need for PPE in the NHS might have distracted from that. The provision of PPE to other workers (e.g. security guards) could also have helped. But again that is hindsight

Lockdown. As I have posted, at the time there was some scientists posting that we should lockdown, and others saying we should not. Even those advocating lockdown mostly did so on the basis that the NHS would be overloaded. Dr C may correct in saying that is because the NHS re-organised. But the point is that they did, so that didn't contribute to our death rate either. I do think care homes should have been locked down earlier than general population, but I didn't see anyway calling for that at the time either

Stopping Immigration. This is the only one where I can criticise without hindsight, because I several times commented that I didn't understand why we were not putting restrictions on travel from the worst areas. But the scientists at the time - notably WHO- were saying not to. Given that I read the other day that they have identified at least 1300 cases that came into the UK

Test & Trace. We definitely have been deficient in this. I don't understand why there was no app ready, but there didn't seem to be many scientists recommended that we should have. At the start it was all about social distancing and . Plainly we should have got testing going earlier and faster, but how much of that is down to govt and how much PHE is unclear

So lots of mistakes, but, and this is a big but
In all respects we have been better (e.g. lockdown in time to avoid health system overrun) or no worse (e.g. lack of track and trace) than Italy, Spain and France
So why is our death rate higher?
Some other countries did much better, but don't seem to have been any better prepared. Japan for example coped very well but from all the reports I have read not because of anything the govt did, and the PM is under a lot of pressure as a result.
Was it luck- someone posted a report in here showing how random luck can make a huge difference? Was it down to culture (some have suggested that Italy, France, UK kiss and shake hands as greetings whereas Japanese bow). I don't know but I can read the statistics say very clearly that there is some other factor that explains the relative performance of countries than the govt reaction & preparedness. Unfortunately the statistics don't tell us what
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Aesgarth @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:43 am

Dirk wrote:Lockdown. As I have posted, at the time there was some scientists posting that we should lockdown, and others saying we should not. Even those advocating lockdown mostly did so on the basis that the NHS would be overloaded. Dr C may correct in saying that is because the NHS re-organised. But the point is that they did, so that didn't contribute to our death rate either. I do think care homes should have been locked down earlier than general population, but I didn't see anyway calling for that at the time either

Let's just be 100% clear on this. Am I reading this right, are you saying that an earlier lockdown would not have had an impact on the number of deaths in this country?
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Dirk @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 11:02 am

Aesgarth wrote:
Dirk wrote:Lockdown. As I have posted, at the time there was some scientists posting that we should lockdown, and others saying we should not. Even those advocating lockdown mostly did so on the basis that the NHS would be overloaded. Dr C may correct in saying that is because the NHS re-organised. But the point is that they did, so that didn't contribute to our death rate either. I do think care homes should have been locked down earlier than general population, but I didn't see anyway calling for that at the time either

Let's just be 100% clear on this. Am I reading this right, are you saying that an earlier lockdown would not have had an impact on the number of deaths in this country?

No, I'm saying that the objective of lockdown as postulated by most of the scientists at the time (avoiding over-run of the NHS) was met.

Clearly deaths could have been reduced if we had locked down early (with hindsight). However the eventual impact is not wholly clear. If no vaccine is available in the near future then this disease will continue to re-circulate and people will catch it eventually. Presumably we have a higher percentage of people who have had it than many other countries so may fare better in the future. Its may because we still don't know what immunity we get from having had it. This is the limited herd immunity theory that was behind flattening the curve. Remember "flattening the curve"? That is what scientists were advising at the time (and so were the most of the governments critics on here). It is only with hindsight that most people are saying that we should have been locking down to stop it more than just flattening.


And as i said, I think with hindsight the care homes should have been locked down earlier than the general population
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by thekungfury @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:26 pm

Sigh. This is like dealing with a cult member. ypauly with better grammar.

The objective of lockdown was not solely to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, no matter how many times you repeat it.

Stay at home
Protect the NHS
Save lives

Furthermore the NHS being overrun is inextricably linked to saving lives. If there isn't enough critical care in the form of beds/staff/equipment then oh fcuk it I can't be bothered anymore.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Dirk @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:55 pm

So that is DR C, TKF and Dis all fallen back on the avoidance strategy of "I can't be bothered"
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Monty @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 1:03 pm

Dirk wrote:So that is DR C, TKF and Dis all fallen back on the avoidance strategy of "I can't be bothered"


I think so Dirk.

You've pompous'd them into submission.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Bodhi @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 1:11 pm

Dirk wrote:So that is DR C, TKF and Dis all fallen back on the avoidance strategy of "I can't be bothered"



You’ve managed to single handedly destroy this thread by just repeating the same thing over and over again. Everytime someone makes a point you just shout them down or come back with some statistic you’ve cherry picked to support your adoration of the government’s terrible handling of this awful pandemic.
It was an interesting thread but you’ve turned it into look at why an pompous arsehole I can be.

That’s why people can’t be bothered to reply to you.

Bye Dirk.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by thekungfury @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 1:13 pm

When you post horseshit like this is there any wonder?
Dirk wrote:BY all means let us debate this, but let us do so on facts and evidence rather than just asserting it was wrong

PPE - despite all the hullabaloo, the evidence is that NHS workers suffered no more infections or death rate than would be expected for general population when corrected by age and sex. Therefore the evidence (rather than prejudice or opinion) is that sufficient PPE was provided to the NHS. Not what they asked for or wanted but sufficient. That may be partially luck, but nevertheless, the provision of PPE to NHS did not on the evidence cause any increase in infections or deaths.

HCW Deaths/million population
Italy 1.98
UK 1.78
Spain 0.62
US 0.59
France 0.35
Australia 0.04
Sweden 0.10
Germany 0.01
Holland 0.0
New Zealand 0.0
(Source Medscape)

Your cognitive bias and refusal to accept any criticism of your beloved Tories is just tiresome. You've just listed 3 people who cba with your nonsense anymore. Instead of questioning yourself you accuse us of using an "avoidance strategy". I will also be using an avoidance strategy of avoiding punching myself in the face today. Bye
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Dirk @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 1:26 pm

What people were saying on here between that report of the 6th and lockdown starting

Posted by Teeks on 15th March of what the measures were intended to do:flattening the curve
http://www.chew-the-fat.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1152543#p1152543
And that we were all going to get it in the next 12 months.

Though I give Teeks credit, he was one of the few saying more needed to be done when most included Dr C were still saying we didn't need to
http://www.chew-the-fat.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1152206#p1152206

I also note this from 10th March
Dirty Boy wrote:The care home my nan is in has just stopped all visitors......protecting their assets lol!!

How did that care home do DB - they seemed to lock down earlier than most

Teeks from the 14th saying why the govt couldn't lock down quickly but had to build up to it
http://www.chew-the-fat.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1152482#p1152482

We knew it was coming, but it was not obvious at the time it should start earlier
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Dirk @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 1:30 pm

thekungfury wrote:When you post horseshit like this is there any wonder?
Dirk wrote:BY all means let us debate this, but let us do so on facts and evidence rather than just asserting it was wrong

PPE - despite all the hullabaloo, the evidence is that NHS workers suffered no more infections or death rate than would be expected for general population when corrected by age and sex. Therefore the evidence (rather than prejudice or opinion) is that sufficient PPE was provided to the NHS. Not what they asked for or wanted but sufficient. That may be partially luck, but nevertheless, the provision of PPE to NHS did not on the evidence cause any increase in infections or deaths.

HCW Deaths/million population
Italy 1.98
UK 1.78
Spain 0.62
US 0.59
France 0.35
Australia 0.04
Sweden 0.10
Germany 0.01
Holland 0.0
New Zealand 0.0
(Source Medscape)

Your cognitive bias and refusal to accept any criticism of your beloved Tories is just tiresome. You've just listed 3 people who cba with your nonsense anymore. Instead of questioning yourself you accuse us of using an "avoidance strategy". I will also be using an avoidance strategy of avoiding punching myself in the face today. Bye

Facts

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19relateddeathsbyoccupationenglandandwales/deathsregistereduptoandincluding20april2020
Healthcare workers, including those with jobs such as doctors and nurses, were not found to have higher rates of death involving COVID-19 when compared with the rate among those whose death involved COVID-19 of the same age and sex in the general population.

Men and women working in social care, a group including care workers and home carers, both had significantly raised rates of death involving COVID-19, with rates of 23.4 deaths per 100,000 males (45 deaths) and 9.6 deaths per 100,000 females (86 deaths).

Among men, a number of other specific occupations were found to have raised rates of death involving COVID-19, including: taxi drivers and chauffeurs (36.4 deaths per 100,000); bus and coach drivers (26.4 deaths per 100,000); chefs (35.9 deaths per 100,000); and sales and retail assistants (19.8 deaths per 100,000).

Health Care workers have suffered more in this country because the whole country has for some reason (and its not clear whether yiur figures include care home workers who have suffered far more). But the NHS were protected if they have the same rates as general population
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Bodhi @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:25 pm

Dirk wrote: But the NHS were protected if they have the same rates as general population



My sister (the nurse) didn't have any PPE supplied to her by the Govt for at least 3 weeks into March and she was going into care homes where people had been discharged from hospitals without being tested despite showing all the signs of having Covid.

Of course the inevitable happened and she (my sister, the nurse) contracted the virus ( she's fine now, thanks) but that was purely down to her not having the PPE you claim the government gave her.

Statistic! that for me Dirk. You Fact Hunt.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Dirk @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:32 pm

Bodhi wrote:
Dirk wrote: But the NHS were protected if they have the same rates as general population



My sister (the nurse) didn't have any PPE supplied to her by the Govt for at least 3 weeks into March and she was going into care homes where people had been discharged from hospitals without being tested despite showing all the signs of having Covid.

Of course the inevitable happened and she (my sister, the nurse) contracted the virus ( she's fine now, thanks) but that was purely down to her not having the PPE you claim the government gave her.

Statistic! that for me Dirk. You Fact Hunt.

Going into care homes heh?
For the hard of reading I have highlighted a bit from what I posted earlier
PPE - despite all the hullabaloo, the evidence is that NHS workers suffered no more infections or death rate than would be expected for general population when corrected by age and sex. Therefore the evidence (rather than prejudice or opinion) is that sufficient PPE was provided to the NHS. Not what they asked for or wanted but sufficient. That may be partially luck, but nevertheless, the provision of PPE to NHS did not on the evidence cause any increase in infections or deaths.
Where the government did make a mistake was in leaving the provision of PPE to care home workers to the care homes. With the benefit of hindsight it is clear to see that had some been provided there, it would have been very beneficial. But no-one was clamouring for that at the time. Indeed the very clamour of the need for PPE in the NHS might have distracted from that. The provision of PPE to other workers (e.g. security guards) could also have helped. But again that is hindsight
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Bodhi @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:39 pm

Dirk wrote:]Where the government did make a mistake was in leaving the provision of PPE to care home workers to the care homes[/u][/b]. With the benefit of hindsight it is clear to see that had some been provided there, it would have been very beneficial. But no-one was clamouring for that at the time. Indeed the very clamour of the need for PPE in the NHS might have distracted from that. The provision of PPE to other workers (e.g. security guards) could also have helped. But again that is hindsight



She's not a care home worker, she's an NHS nurse, she goes into private homes, care homes and hospitals. All sans PPE.


Uh-OH!! What's that?? Is it the sound of your statistics, and therefore argument, not being solidly backed up and falling to ground in a crumpled heap??

Yes it is.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Dirk @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:42 pm

OK so I could have chosen words more carefully, the point is that all those working in care homes weren't provided with PPE, but those in hospitals were sufficiently (though there were local deficiencies). It was a distribution issue. The evidence of the rates of those working in NHS hospitals vs care homes shows that
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by thekungfury @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:57 pm

Glad to hear she's recovered Bodes
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Bodhi @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:27 pm

Dirk wrote:OK so I could have chosen words more carefully,


Perhaps you could've said something like the government didn't supply PPE to the people who needed it

Dirk wrote: the point is that all those working in care homes weren't provided with PPE, but those in hospitals were sufficiently (though there were local deficiencies)


You've contradicted yourself there Dirk.

local deficiencies actually means there wasn't any.

Dirk wrote:It was a distribution issue. The evidence of the rates of those working in NHS hospitals vs care homes shows that


Irrelevant - it could've been stuck on the moon for all the use it was being caught up in a distribution issue. It's the govt responsibility to ensure there aren't such issues.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Bodhi @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:30 pm

thekungfury wrote:Glad to hear she's recovered Bodes



Thanks. For a moment we did think it was going to be pretty awful but thankfully she's one of the majority who fully recovered.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Dirk @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:57 pm

Bodhi wrote:
Dirk wrote:It was a distribution issue. The evidence of the rates of those working in NHS hospitals vs care homes shows that


Irrelevant - it could've been stuck on the moon for all the use it was being caught up in a distribution issue. It's the govt responsibility to ensure there aren't such issues.

Are you deliberately trying put words in my mouth i never said
Dirk wrote:Where the government did make a mistake was in leaving the provision of PPE to care home workers to the care homes

I have already said that the govt got that wrong
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Bodhi @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 4:07 pm

Dirk wrote:Are you deliberately trying put words in my mouth i never said
Dirk wrote:Where the government did make a mistake was in leaving the provision of PPE to care home workers to the care homes

I have already said that the govt got that wrong



Sorry I thought you said
Dirk wrote:but those in hospitals were sufficiently (though there were local deficiencies). It was a distribution issue.


And of course I replied that ...moon....stuck...govt responsibilty etc etc

So are you saying there were no issues in the hospitals and they had everything they needed?? I only ask as I need to tell my sister she's a goddamned liar if you're right.

Of course you might have a statistic to show that I'm wrong and just imagined it all.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by dirtyboy @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 4:30 pm

Dirk wrote:What people were saying on here between that report of the 6th and lockdown starting


I also note this from 10th March
Dirty Boy wrote:The care home my nan is in has just stopped all visitors......protecting their assets lol!!

How did that care home do DB - they seemed to lock down earlier than most


We knew it was coming, but it was not obvious at the time it should start earlier



They had one case, the person was taken taken to hospital, quarantined on return, all staff who'd had contact did not return for 14 days, even the window cleaner and girls who worked in the cafe (on site, but was open to public - not now obvs) were signed up as temporary staff in the home to cover etc.

One case, no deaths.

The NHS run care home literally 600m away from my Nan's have had seven deaths, the one where my wife worked as a hairdresser some time back have had 4 (very nice place too) and the next nearest had 6. Can't comment on cases.

My Nan's home have been nothing short of incredible. However, it's her birthday on Thursday and I'm taking her present up tomorrow morning as it has to sit 72 hours in the warehouse before it's allowed into the home. Still no visitors. We're able to do a 'drive by' on her birthday where she sits on the path and we have to stay in the car.

They did a family drive by last weekend, but limited to two cars and I didn't get a slot, my Dad and Brother both came in their cars and used the slots.

I guess the £5k a month seemed expensive, but they've kept her safe, so fair play!
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Dirk @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 4:42 pm

I'm not sure what you are arguing with about Bodhi,
I have repeatedly said that the decision not to provide PPE for staff in care homes, and I should have said nurses visiting care home and for that matter community nurses was wrong.

All of those were grossly let down. Who made that decision and why I do not know.

But the actual evidence from infection and death rates is that hospital staff were no more at risk than the general populace. Therefore I conclude they had sufficient. I have admitted that I incorrectly distinguished between NHS hospital and NHS care home/community.

So to me the mistake was in not providing any PPE to care homes, care home nurses, community nurses when it was being provided to hospitals

For that matter I think care homes were let down in other ways
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by dirtyboy @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:08 pm

Here's my stance.

Such is human nature that we do what we think is right at the time and history often tells us we were wrong.

When so few are making the decisions that are relevant to so many, I rarely feel that there's a correct choice and in this day and age, when you feel wronged, you have a very visible platform from which to shout from.

I've tried to learn to not worry about things outside of my own personal control. It's okay to moan about those not social distancing, of course it is, but rather than being incensed with my neighbours' behaviour or that of the person in the shop in front of me, I stick my head down, wash my hands when I'm home and give people the respect I would like in return.

It's a thankless, no, impossible task, to contol 60 odd million people who have varying degrees of respect for the law and, importantly, people. Until there's the ability to invoke consequences for every breach of every law, many people by their nature, will try and get away with what they can, it's that attitude to risk you cannot remove from us unless it's truly enforced.

And to think, for a brief moment early March or perhaps sooner (when was Italy kicking off?) I was advocating letting this virus sweek through the nation, kill off the weak and old and we'd emerge stronger, like a wildfire scorching the earth. I was wrong obviously, the realisation of the magnitude and the effect it would have had on me personally changed very quickly (possibilty of losing family).

We found ourselves in nomans land, we didn't stop that wildfire when we first saw it and we didn't let it takes its natural course either to give us the 'fresh earth' so we got one of the poorer outcomes somewhere inbetween. Don't take me up with the arguement on the desecration version I thought about...I won't defend it, just mentioning it.

I'm a terrible person for even considering the case for letting it sweep the nation I know...but that was my emotionless bad ass Motherfcuker side coming out - I usually am just Bruce Banner version of me.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Damien Thorn @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:15 pm

Dirk wrote:But the actual evidence from infection and death rates is that hospital staff were no more at risk than the general populace. Therefore I conclude they had sufficient. I have admitted that I incorrectly distinguished between NHS hospital and NHS care home/community.


Would it be silly to wonder that if they'd had adequate PPE they might have been less at risk than the general populace?
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Dirk @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:33 pm

Damien Thorn wrote:
Dirk wrote:But the actual evidence from infection and death rates is that hospital staff were no more at risk than the general populace. Therefore I conclude they had sufficient. I have admitted that I incorrectly distinguished between NHS hospital and NHS care home/community.


Would it be silly to wonder that if they'd had adequate PPE they might have been less at risk than the general populace?

Not silly, but as a lot of the rest of the population were at home (WAH or furloughed) and you still have risks from commuting, buying food etc, if they have been reduced to the same rate then its probably about as far as you can get
Whereas care home workers were far worse.and security guards worse still
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Doctor Congo @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:48 pm

Christ. You haven’t got the slightest clue. It’s quite extraordinary.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Dirk @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:53 pm

Doctor Congo wrote:Christ. You haven’t got the slightest clue. It’s quite extraordinary.

Again you resort to ad hominem attacks with no evidence, or even saying in what respect I am wrong

Whereas I can point this
What’s more worrying though is the numbers of admissions due to covid and the number of patients requiring ventilation due to covid which is overwhelming many health systems, including our NHS, aided by the incompetence of the government.

And of course the NAO has confirmed that we never ran out of ventilators or capacity. The NHS was not overwhelmed.

I'm trying to see what evidence and facts there are to see what has gone wrong, and as you may have noticed have said that the Govt got stuff wrong

Whereas you just seem to be throwing around criticisms without any basis, both at me and the government

That is what I am arguing with, not that the government is blameless
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Dirk @ Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:21 pm

I'm quite prepared to be shown I'm wrong, but so far all I have is abuse and can't be bothered
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Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 pm
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