The Coronavirus thread

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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by thekungfury @ Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:11 pm

Somebody I know tested positive recently. Her sister died of cancer and other than being at the hospice and the funeral she's been shielding because she too had cancer and is on immuno-suppressants. She contacted everyone at the funeral and they also got positive tests, 27 people.

She's had 5+ calls per day from track and trace to tell her someone she came into contact with recently has tested positive. There is no central database and each caller is calling due to one of the positive tests, including her husband and three kids. There seems to be no joined up database to avoid there being almost 700 calls vs 1 single call to each of the 7 households at the funeral.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by desertweasel @ Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:20 am

thekungfury wrote:Somebody I know tested positive recently. Her sister died of cancer and other than being at the hospice and the funeral she's been shielding because she too had cancer and is on immuno-suppressants. She contacted everyone at the funeral and they also got positive tests, 27 people.

She's had 5+ calls per day from track and trace to tell her someone she came into contact with recently has tested positive. There is no central database and each caller is calling due to one of the positive tests, including her husband and three kids. There seems to be no joined up database to avoid there being almost 700 calls vs 1 single call to each of the 7 households at the funeral.


Wow that seems like a super spreader event for sure, do you know if there was any attempt at isolation or were people (understandably) hugging and shaking hands etc?
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by thekungfury @ Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:55 am

I didn't ask but yes I suspect lots of consoling hugs. Masks and sanitiser used but it just goes to show how easy this thing is to spread.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by NNK @ Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:06 pm

I saw on our news last night that UK will be going into another lockdown, a mini one ?
Then I read something about it only being certain cities/areas (university cities?)

We went for a walk around Auckland just after seeing/reading and I kept thinking if there were 15 times as many people on the streets (4.5m pop vs 65m ?) how difficult it would be to avoid transmission.

I gather NZ is $50b in debt due to Covid payments, etc so dread to think how much UK is in the hole and how much worse another lockdown will make it.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by manfromdelmonte @ Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:43 pm

It's not good. That's why we're all coming with you on your boat.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by stuart @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:30 am

Dirk wrote:
S1K wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54512034

A man in the United States has caught Covid twice, with the second infection becoming far more dangerous than the first, doctors report.
The 25-year-old needed hospital treatment after his lungs could not get enough oxygen into his body.
Scientists say the patient caught coronavirus twice, rather than the original infection becoming dormant and then bouncing back. A comparison of the genetic codes of the virus taken during each bout of symptoms showed they were too distinct to be caused by the same infection.


Worrying

If they are too distinct to be the same infection, does that mean that they are too distinct for the anti-bodies to be much use, and hence why he caught it again?
And if so does that mean it is mutating so much that a virus for one wouldn't protect against the other?
Any views Dr C?


Then of course is the question as to whether it will continue mutating like that, and if so will it become less severe?


https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/10/14/immunity-and-re-infection
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Clown Ice Skater #4 @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:35 pm

Essex and London in tier 2. Fvcksake.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Il Duce @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:41 pm

Clown Ice Skater #4 wrote:Essex and London in tier 2. Fvcksake.


It's still not as bad as the rules in Wales at the moment.

I think.

Even after having looked at the websites I'm still not sure who's worse off. What a shitfest.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Clown Ice Skater #4 @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:45 pm

Il Duce wrote:
Clown Ice Skater #4 wrote:Essex and London in tier 2. Fvcksake.


It's still not as bad as the rules in Wales at the moment.

I think.

Even after having looked at the websites I'm still not sure who's worse off. What a shitfest.


It's fcuked our holiday in Wales.
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The Coronavirus thread

Post by thekungfury @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:48 pm

Il Duce wrote:
Clown Ice Skater #4 wrote:Essex and London in tier 2. Fvcksake.


It's still not as bad as the rules in Wales at the moment.

I think.

Even after having looked at the websites I'm still not sure who's worse off. What a shitfest.

England has Medium, High and Very High
Wales has Low, Medium, High

England Medium = Wales Low

It's almost like they haven't thought things through or consulted each other.

eta I liked this
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Il Duce @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:27 pm

Clown Ice Skater #4 wrote:
Il Duce wrote:
Clown Ice Skater #4 wrote:Essex and London in tier 2. Fvcksake.


It's still not as bad as the rules in Wales at the moment.

I think.

Even after having looked at the websites I'm still not sure who's worse off. What a shitfest.


It's fcuked our holiday in Wales.


Ah I see. But does tier 2 stop you from travelling or is it our fvcking druid in the welsh assembly that has done something?
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Greg66 @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:33 pm

Well, console yourself with this. There's a poster in the other place who is making a big moral stand about how he is going to lie to defy the new tier 2 restrictions, because it is honest and right thing to do.

And to underline just how right and pure he is, and how important it is to lie about meeting other families indoors in these difficult times, he likens himself to those who protected Anne Frank and lied about what they were doing.

FFS. Just how far can one get up one's own actual arse before collapsing into a singularity?
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Careless Whisperer @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:47 pm

Thanks to being in a London Borough, albeit with a Kent postcode, we'll be in Tier 2 from Saturday. So I've had to actually spend some time trying to understand what that actually means, rather than just rolling my eyes at the whole fcuking shambles. SO what affects me seems to be:

It seems I can still travel to my Client's premises as long as they operate in a Covid secure way. This is really important as I actually have a few days work next week!

Food serving establishments have to close at 10pm. Takeaways are fine to keep going 24/7.

Schools keep going.

Indoor sports are subject to the rule of 6 and that rule also applies to outdoor venues and gardens.

No indoor mixing of households, whether at home or a public space - so what about those eateries who can be open until 10pm? Can they only have 6 customers?

Reduce journeys blah blah blah.


I just don't see how any of that is going to make the slightest bit of difference. In the course of going about my daily life over the past couple of months I haven't seen anyone ignoring guidance apart from the odd non mask-wearer in petrol stations.

Clearly I'm not an expert on these things, but I must admit the idea of a 'circuit breaker' for 2 or 3 weeks makes more sense to me - although they've missed the boat now as it would need to be done over half term (ie. starting this weekend) to reduce the impact it has on everyone.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Dirk @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:53 pm

Locking down by regions makes more sense to me. Many have been consistently low incidence, have followed the rules, and still have low occurrence rate. There is no evidence that R is above 1 in such areas. So what would be the purpose of locking down further there?

I also disagree that people are following the rules generally . Look at the scenes from Liverpool, or pubs in many areas.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Careless Whisperer @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:58 pm

Dirk wrote:Locking down by regions makes more sense to me. Many have been consistently low incidence, have followed the rules, and still have low occurrence rate. There is no evidence that R is above 1 in such areas. So what would be the purpose of locking down further there?

I also disagree that people are following the rules generally . Look at the scenes from Liverpool, or pubs in many areas.


But they're not actually locking down in those regions are they. Just making life a bit more cumbersome, but nothing really substantial until Tier 3.

If action needs to be take at Tier 2 level, then surely it needs to be with the aim of preventing reaching Tier 3 - I can't see how it will possibly make that differece, so we're going to Tier 3 anyway, just perhaps a week later than we would have done.

Maybe a 'circuit-breaker' in all Tier 2 and 3 areas would make more sense?

I don't know. It just feels like there is absolutely no cohesion, no clear direction of meaningful action.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by thekungfury @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:03 pm

Greg66 wrote:he likens himself to those who protected Anne Frank and lied about what they were doing

Laugh

Ian Brown having a normal one
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by manfromdelmonte @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:06 pm

Careless Whisperer wrote:No indoor mixing of households, whether at home or a public space - so what about those eateries who can be open until 10pm? Can they only have 6 customers?


I believe that's not the case. They can have multiple, single households of up to 6 people, as long as they are following whatever other Covid rules apply to those eateries.

I'm pretty unhappy about all of this, but as Greg implied, it's not about getting caught, it's about doing the right thing. I live on my own and so could theoretically be in a support bubble with whoever I happen to be with at the time I'm caught, thus avoiding any fine or whatever. Does this mean I'll ignore the new rules? Of course not.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by minimoog @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:23 pm

What really jars with me is as it stands I can't have fam round for Christmas - even if say we all made a point of isolating for a week or two beforehand - yet I can sit all day every day in a pub full of strangers who might be habitually breaking rules or just generally widely exposed in their daily lives.

It's fcuking mental.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Aesgarth @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:48 pm

I've given up even trying to follow what the rules are and am basically applying what passes for common sense in my head. Generally avoiding people and enclosed public spaces. I'm pretty sure I'm in Tier 2 and there has been talk of changing to tier 3 but I can't fcuking work out why, since as far as I can tell there have been 0 cases per 13000 people in the last week.

:banghead:
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Dirk @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:01 pm

minimoog wrote:What really jars with me is as it stands I can't have fam round for Christmas - even if say we all made a point of isolating for a week or two beforehand - yet I can sit all day every day in a pub full of strangers who might be habitually breaking rules or just generally widely exposed in their daily lives.

It's fcuking mental.

Would love to see what proportion of transmission is via pubs. Anywhere know if they publish that sort of analysis from track & trace anywhere?
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by thekungfury @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:21 pm

Dirk wrote:
minimoog wrote:What really jars with me is as it stands I can't have fam round for Christmas - even if say we all made a point of isolating for a week or two beforehand - yet I can sit all day every day in a pub full of strangers who might be habitually breaking rules or just generally widely exposed in their daily lives.

It's fcuking mental.

Would love to see what proportion of transmission is via pubs. Anywhere know if they publish that sort of analysis from track & trace anywhere?

I saw a chart recently which showed hospitality accounted for 5% of cases. Vast majority was care home, school and workplace

eta chart from PHE https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... eek_40.pdf
covid.JPG
covid.JPG (49.8 KiB) Viewed 130 times


You can see exactly when schools/uni went back and they told us to go back to work. Also the rise in food outlet cases when they told us to Eat Out to Help Out. And now we're being blame for being irresponsible. Some people are being less careful I'm sure but the predictable things happened all at once.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Dirk @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:33 pm

Thanks Teeks. I'm a bit surprised, I expected pubs to be higher*, and care homes to have be lower after all this time- with that rate of transmission just about everyone in them must have had it by now.

* though I doubt many of the worst pub offeners use track and trace or sign in etc
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by thekungfury @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:44 pm

It's not clear how it's recorded either. If you have kids in school and you nip for a pint after work where did you catch it?
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Careless Whisperer @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:17 pm

thekungfury wrote:It's not clear how it's recorded either. If you have kids in school and you nip for a pint after work where did you catch it?


Going by the way this has been handled so far, I would imagine that is counted under Care Home...
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Clown Ice Skater #4 @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:59 pm

Il Duce wrote:
Clown Ice Skater #4 wrote:
Il Duce wrote:
Clown Ice Skater #4 wrote:Essex and London in tier 2. Fvcksake.


It's still not as bad as the rules in Wales at the moment.

I think.

Even after having looked at the websites I'm still not sure who's worse off. What a shitfest.


It's fcuked our holiday in Wales.


Ah I see. But does tier 2 stop you from travelling or is it our fvcking druid in the welsh assembly that has done something?


The place we are meant to be going to is in Gwynedd which is currently one of the few places not locked down. However, the boss of Wales has said that they will stop anyone in tier 2/3 travelling to the whole of Wales and police will issue fines to people travelling there. Not only that, but Welsh people will grass up any non-locals, apparently.

I called the cottage owner today and she was pretty unforthcoming, claiming that she needed to consult her husband and didn’t know what to do, situation unprecedented etc. I also got a bit of a spiel about ‘this is our livelihood’ which I do sympathise with, but this cannot be the first time she has had to deal with a Covid-related issue with bookings. We are fine to postpone till next year (which I have already told her) but it’s the lack of contact and avoiding speaking to us that annoys me. She was meant to call us back tonight and hasn’t.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Greg66 @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:09 pm

Greg66 wrote:A couple of months ago I signed up to be a plasma donor for cv-19. Then things got in the way and I had to cancel an appointment and re-sign up. It’s quite dispiriting to see how slowly the NHS side of this works but they are probably at least as dispirited at me being a feckless dick.

But.

I will get an antibody test to see whether I have plasma worth harvesting. And as I had it in March/April, that will - I hope - give some indication as to whether antibodies stick around.


Turns out I have no detectable antibodies. Which is a bit of a shocka. The test has 70% accuracy so, as they explain, three negatives in ten may be false negatives. But, you know, well, errr...
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by thekungfury @ Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:29 pm

Greg66 wrote:
Greg66 wrote:I will get an antibody test to see whether I have plasma worth harvesting. And as I had it in March/April, that will - I hope - give some indication as to whether antibodies stick around.


Turns out I have no detectable antibodies. Which is a bit of a shocka. The test has 70% accuracy so, as they explain, three negatives in ten may be false negatives. But, you know, well, errr...

Earlier thekungfury wrote:Chatting with a friend yesterday (intensive care matron) and she says they are testing the long term patients on the ward for antibodies. 90% are showing no antibodies at all, despite repeated tests weeks/months after they were admitted.

I’ve not seen it reported outside of these two anecdotes but it’s concerning
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Il Duce @ Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:44 am

So your government has decided that anyone arriving from Italy must quarantine for 14 days. This is despite your infection rate per 100,000 being 3 times what is in Italy.

If you come to Italy you'll be tested in the airport and will have a result in 30-60 mins.

It's just not right! How the hell did Italy become more efficient than the UK?
What next? Honest Italian politicians? Italians paying tax?
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Greg66 @ Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:48 am

thekungfury wrote:
Greg66 wrote:
Greg66 wrote:I will get an antibody test to see whether I have plasma worth harvesting. And as I had it in March/April, that will - I hope - give some indication as to whether antibodies stick around.


Turns out I have no detectable antibodies. Which is a bit of a shocka. The test has 70% accuracy so, as they explain, three negatives in ten may be false negatives. But, you know, well, errr...

Earlier thekungfury wrote:Chatting with a friend yesterday (intensive care matron) and she says they are testing the long term patients on the ward for antibodies. 90% are showing no antibodies at all, despite repeated tests weeks/months after they were admitted.

I’ve not seen it reported outside of these two anecdotes but it’s concerning


I was thinking a bit more last night about my test. I don’t know enough about human biology to know the answer to this (meaning I can’t remember my O level biology sufficiently), but does it matter to me that I don’t have antibodies in my blood stream?

Is the point of getting a disease and recovering that your body works how to recognise the invader and what to do about it second time around? Like remembering a recipe? Surely at any given moment in time your bloodstream isn’t filled with antibodies for every disease you’ve ever had (is it?).

The point of the test was to see whether I still had live antibodies for harvesting and (I assume) replication, then injection into patients. So that they would get better, and grow this <circles hands around face> beautiful face for themselves, the poor munters.

But as long as my immune system continues to remember how to respond to an invasion of Covid virus, maybe I am ok. Maybe.

It’s certainly a more comforting view of the data.
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Re: The Coronavirus thread

Post by Strawman @ Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:09 am

>tries to remember some medical school lectures on the immune system<

If you tested positive in the past and had the virus then your immune system killed it in your body, so white blood cells (mainly
phagocytes and macrophages plus some others stuff I can't remember) were capturing and neutralising the virus when you were ill. How they identify the threat in the first place is complex but once a threat has been identified loads of new antibodies are made to latch onto the Corvid-19 virus and help your immune system eliminate it. Maybe it's been too long since you were infected to have enough rona specific antobodies to harvest. Second time around your immune system should recognise a fresh Rona invasion and act quicker. Hope that makes everything crystal clear.
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