Election 2019

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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:09 pm

BBC mistakenly showed video oif Boris laying a wreath which was from 2016 rather than 2019.
Minor error, of no great import right?

Not to many. Accusations of BBC bias and all sorts

https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1193840620701437957?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1193840620701437957%7Ctwgr%5E363937393b70726f64756374696f6e&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fentertainment-arts-50374630

WTF?

Am I missing something? WHo gives a shit
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Strawman @ Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:28 pm

Surely it would easier to show this Sunday's one, where he laid the wreath upside down, rather than find some archive footage where he didn't mess up.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:00 pm

Strawman wrote:Surely it would easier to show this Sunday's one, where he laid the wreath upside down, rather than find some archive footage where he didn't mess up.

Ah - did he mess up? Must have missed that. What did he do?
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Re: Election 2019

Post by S1K @ Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:11 pm

The Farage Party has said they won’t stand in the seats the Conservatives won last time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50377396
Last edited by S1K on Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by thekungfury @ Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:13 pm

S1K wrote:The Farage Party has said they won’t stand in the seats the Conservatives stood last time.

Won last time

It's a weird approach though. Lab/LD won last time so let's try and split the Tory vote to make sure they hold it?!?
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:24 pm

thekungfury wrote:
S1K wrote:The Farage Party has said they won’t stand in the seats the Conservatives stood last time.

Won last time

It's a weird approach though. Lab/LD won last time so let's try and split the Tory vote to make sure they hold it?!?

Agreed,

I suspect more expedience because they can't find enough candidates (even with those who fail a sanity test when asked for place of birth)
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Re: Election 2019

Post by thekungfury @ Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:17 am

Horrid realisation this morning that Farage has done this in exchange for a peerage hasn’t he? I feel sick
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Re: Election 2019

Post by minimoog @ Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:02 am

thekungfury wrote:Horrid realisation this morning that Farage has done this in exchange for a peerage hasn’t he? I feel sick


Yep that's what I read too. This country is becoming a proper shithole, politically at least.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:02 am

I really hope not Teeks

LDs can apparently be added to the parties wilfully self-distracting with allegations that Kevin McNamara (vice pres of the LD campaign for racial equality) repeatedly used the N word on twitter some time back

And Brexit party can be added to the groups infighting
A former Brexit Party candidate has attacked his leader for the strategy.

Robert Wheal was due to stand as a candidate in the Arundel and South Downs constituency, but has been stood down as part of the move.

He tweeted Mr Farage was "finished as a politician", adding: "It's putting Nigel before the country. He will go down in infamy, letting down so many good people with whom he sought their trust.

"All that Farage has exposed is his duplicity to so many supporters who had put their faith in him.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by tanglerat @ Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:15 am

Why don't those disappointed Brexit Party stalwarts who've been "stood down" by Lord Nigel just go ahead and stand as an Independent Brexit Party candidate?
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:17 am

tanglerat wrote:Why don't those disappointed Brexit Party stalwarts who've been "stood down" by Lord Nigel just go ahead and stand as an Independent Brexit Party candidate?

Because then they would have to stump up the deposit themselves?
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Re: Election 2019

Post by tanglerat @ Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:21 am

Dirk wrote:
tanglerat wrote:Why don't those disappointed Brexit Party stalwarts who've been "stood down" by Lord Nigel just go ahead and stand as an Independent Brexit Party candidate?

Because then they would have to stump up the deposit themselves?


fcuk that, let them put their hands in their own pockets. What price Sovereignty?
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:52 am

I think the Tories are missing a trick

"Vote Conservative
We will leave the EU - and therefore you will never have to listen to Farage spouting self-serving crap again, nor see his smug face again. Also, once we leave the EU he will be thrown off the MEP gravy train, so if we are lucky he will be bankrupt"
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Re: Election 2019

Post by tanglerat @ Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:58 am

Dirk wrote:I think the Tories are missing a trick

"Vote Conservative
We will leave the EU - and therefore you will never have to listen to Farage spouting self-serving crap again, nor see his smug face again. Also, once we leave the EU he will be thrown off the MEP gravy train the Cliffs of Dover, so if we are lucky he will be bankrupt"



Better
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Strawman @ Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:13 pm

Dirk wrote:
tanglerat wrote:Why don't those disappointed Brexit Party stalwarts who've been "stood down" by Lord Nigel just go ahead and stand as an Independent Brexit Party candidate?

Because then they would have to stump up the deposit themselves?


A measley £500? Some of them are £10,000 down already, they have hired an assistant for 2 months, have a garage full of Brexit party posters and leaflets they had printed, and now no seat to contest.

>sheds crcodile tear<
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Strawman @ Tue Nov 12, 2019 2:21 pm

The Gina Miller tactical voting website is now live, no recomendations for me unfortch

Recommendation

No tactical voting recommendation as considered a safe seat

Explanation

safe Conservative seat with Labour likely in second place
Predicted Vote Shares:
Conservative: 57%
Labour: 26%
Lib Dems: 14%
Brexit: 0%
Green: 1%
SNP / PC: 0%
UKIP: 0%
MIN: 0%
Other: 0%


https://www.remainunited.org/
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Tue Nov 12, 2019 3:04 pm

If you want Remain I completely get voting LD.

To me voting labour is still highly risky and may end up with no deal

1) Its a hung parliament. Parliament (again) fails to pass the bill for leaving - so we exit with no-deal
2) Labour win, EU refuses to extend - so we exit with no-deal
3) Labour win, EU extends, fail to negotiate a new deal- so we exit with new deal
4) Labour win, EU extends, negotiate new deal, referendum fails to pass, so we exit with new deal

etc
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Damien Thorn @ Tue Nov 12, 2019 3:25 pm

Strawman wrote:The Gina Miller tactical voting website is now live, no recomendations for me unfortch

Recommendation

No tactical voting recommendation as considered a safe seat

Explanation

safe Conservative seat with Labour likely in second place
Predicted Vote Shares:
Conservative: 57%
Labour: 26%
Lib Dems: 14%
Brexit: 0%
Green: 1%
SNP / PC: 0%
UKIP: 0%
MIN: 0%
Other: 0%


https://www.remainunited.org/
Same, but an even safer Tory seat at 60%. Although interestingly then it's Labor at 19% then LD at 17%

A shame though, as I would be very glad to see Priti Patel ousted.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by minornut @ Tue Nov 12, 2019 4:53 pm

Recommendation
Vote Labour
Explanation
competitive Conservative-Labour seat
Predicted Vote Shares:
Conservative: 39%
Labour: 34%
Lib Dems: 8%
Brexit: 17%
Green: 1%
SNP / PC: 0%
UKIP: 0%
MIN: 0%
Other: 0%

I may have to hold my nose and vote Labour. This has always been a safe labour seat but the local population seem hell bent on brexiting.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:05 pm

minornut wrote:Recommendation
Vote Labour
Explanation
competitive Conservative-Labour seat
Predicted Vote Shares:
Conservative: 39%
Labour: 34%
Lib Dems: 8%
Brexit: 17%
Green: 1%
SNP / PC: 0%
UKIP: 0%
MIN: 0%
Other: 0%

I may have to hold my nose and vote Labour. This has always been a safe labour seat but the local population seem hell bent on brexiting.

It is is normally a safe labour seat what are they using to forecast a Tory win?
None of the polls are suggesting that much of a swing. Its beginning to sound like this website is biased towards pushing you to vote Labour?
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Strawman @ Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:47 pm

Dirk wrote: Its beginning to sound like this website is biased towards pushing you to vote Labour?


Three seats tested so far, two give no recomendtion and the other says vote Labour, is your bias showing a bit much Dirk?

In other news the supression of the report into Russian interferance in UK elections has been witheld on the orders of Boris Johnson, is he thereby guilty of miscoduct in public office?
If the report contains information pertinent to the election, he is deliberately subjecting us to harm from a hostile foreign power for personal political gain.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Tue Nov 12, 2019 6:00 pm

Strawman wrote:
Dirk wrote: Its beginning to sound like this website is biased towards pushing you to vote Labour?


Three seats tested so far, two give no recomendtion and the other says vote Labour, is your bias showing a bit much Dirk?

I can see why you think that and there isn't enough evidence to tell whether it does have any bias. But Why does it think that is a marginal? Seems barking if Minor nut is correct that is a safe Labour anyway
But without looking at a lot more seats we won't know - hence why I used a question mark, to indicate that I was merely asking the question, not making a statement

(and yes I am aware that a leading question can be as powerful as a statement, but in this case I am merely asking)
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Strawman @ Tue Nov 12, 2019 6:18 pm

Faur enough Dirky, there is a long thread on twitter analysing the three vote tactical voting websites in all 632 mainland seats showing they make broadly similar recomendations.

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1194269371893534720
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Re: Election 2019

Post by minornut @ Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:32 pm

Dirk wrote:
minornut wrote:Recommendation
Vote Labour
Explanation
competitive Conservative-Labour seat
Predicted Vote Shares:
Conservative: 39%
Labour: 34%
Lib Dems: 8%
Brexit: 17%
Green: 1%
SNP / PC: 0%
UKIP: 0%
MIN: 0%
Other: 0%

I may have to hold my nose and vote Labour. This has always been a safe labour seat but the local population seem hell bent on brexiting.

It is is normally a safe labour seat what are they using to forecast a Tory win?
None of the polls are suggesting that much of a swing. Its beginning to sound like this website is biased towards pushing you to vote Labour?


It has had a Labour MP since 1929.

Labour originally selected a remain supporting Londoner as their candidate but have since replaced her with a local councillor. This will have impacted the polls as well as the inexplicable love of the local turkeys for Christmas.
Brexit party are getting a lot of vocal support on local Facebook pages.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:37 pm

I had a look and it appears there are a lot of complaints from both sides about various sites showing bias, probably more labour claiming pro LD bias (with some justification it seems to me)

I think I'd rather make my own view up than trust any of those sites. It's not as if past votes are not easily found
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:10 am

This is turning into the Musical Chairs election

3 (IIRC?) ex-labour MPs saying vote Tory
2 Tory MPs saying vote LD
1 LD candidate stood down and said vote Labour to keep Tories out. LDs started disciplinary action against him, so another candidate threatened to do the same
Now Kate Hooey is voting DUP
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Tokyo Sexwale @ Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:18 am

Your theory isn't true for me Dirk. Maybe you need a larger n.

Recommendation

For the best chance of reducing the Conservative majority, vote Lib Dem

Explanation

Conservative in the lead with Lib Dem in second place

Predicted Vote Shares: Conservative: 55%
Labour: 13%
Lib Dems: 30%
Brexit: 0%
Green: 2%
SNP / PC: 0%
UKIP: 0%
MIN: 0%
Other: 0%

Which is exactly what I plan to do.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by minimoog @ Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:54 am

Dirk wrote:It is is normally a safe labour seat what are they using to forecast a Tory win?


Minornut wrote:This has always been a safe labour seat but the local population seem hell bent on brexiting.


Do you even read anymore before gobbing off about bias?
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:07 am

minimoog wrote:
Dirk wrote:It is is normally a safe labour seat what are they using to forecast a Tory win?


Minornut wrote:This has always been a safe labour seat but the local population seem hell bent on brexiting.


Do you even read anymore before gobbing off about bias?

Do you read before starting to insult. If you read my reply to Strawms you would have seen that I was merely posing the question as I have seen little evidence that safe Lab seats will turn blue.
And also that a lot of the tactical voting sites are accused of bias in various directions
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Re: Election 2019

Post by tanglerat @ Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:47 am

Dirk wrote:Now Kate Hooey is voting DUP


Now? What do you mean, "now"? Hooey has always been a DUPper. Since like, forever.
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