Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

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Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

Post by Adam Ansel @ Mon May 09, 2016 1:25 pm

About time too:
http://www.cityam.com/240634/trying-to- ... -is-rising

Just wait till interest rates start going up. Looking at inflation trends they should have already started raising them.
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Re: Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

Post by thekungfury @ Mon May 09, 2016 1:37 pm

Report says nothing about the actual selling prices, merely reductions in asking prices. It also doesn't compare it to any other period of time so we don't know if asking prices are being reduced more/less than 12mths ago.

This is a far better picture. http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/Mai ... r_2016.pdf

Plus excuse me if I don't pay much attention to a news report which features a picture of an American house to lead out the story.
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Re: Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

Post by Rod Rammage @ Mon May 09, 2016 1:41 pm

Someone told me that someone told him there was going to be another recession.
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Re: Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

Post by Il Duce @ Mon May 09, 2016 1:43 pm

Oh ffs, take it back to PH.
They love a wankfest about rubbish like that.
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Re: Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

Post by Monty @ Mon May 09, 2016 4:46 pm

I think this is what all the fuss is about:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/hou ... rices-dip/

Frankly, to be expected after the rush for BTL's prior to this April's stamp duty hike.
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Re: Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

Post by Ghost @ Mon May 09, 2016 5:11 pm

I have seen suggestions that "Brexit" fear is affecting both the resi and commercial markets. Fcuk knows why though, other than any excuse to do nothing for a few months. Now would be a good time to buy if you are in the market I reckon!
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Re: Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

Post by deev @ Mon May 09, 2016 10:08 pm

Having just been outbid by 20k on a house that we bid 40k over the home report on, it seems that the housing bubble in the south side of Glasgow is going along just fine. Grumble.
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Re: Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

Post by Doctor Congo @ Mon May 09, 2016 10:51 pm

Ghost wrote:I have seen suggestions that "Brexit" fear is affecting both the resi and commercial markets. Fcuk knows why though, other than any excuse to do nothing for a few months. Now would be a good time to buy if you are in the market I reckon!



A good friend works as a manager for an estate agency in London which is very lucrative, in a rich area and he says the Brexit is having an effect as foreign investment has reduced due to uncertainty and local investment is reduced as no one is sure how the banks will be affected by a Brexit.
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Re: Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

Post by Il Duce @ Tue May 10, 2016 9:39 am

968 wrote:
Ghost wrote:I have seen suggestions that "Brexit" fear is affecting both the resi and commercial markets. Fcuk knows why though, other than any excuse to do nothing for a few months. Now would be a good time to buy if you are in the market I reckon!



A good friend works as a manager for an estate agency in London which is very lucrative, in a rich area and he says the Brexit is having an effect as foreign investment has reduced due to uncertainty and local investment is reduced as no one is sure how the banks will be affected by a Brexit.



I think I'd trust a piranha with my balls in its mouth before I'd trust an estate agent.

N.b. The balls in the mouth part doesn't apply to the estate agent.
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Re: Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

Post by Ghost @ Tue May 10, 2016 10:37 am

968 wrote:
Ghost wrote:I have seen suggestions that "Brexit" fear is affecting both the resi and commercial markets. Fcuk knows why though, other than any excuse to do nothing for a few months. Now would be a good time to buy if you are in the market I reckon!



A good friend works as a manager for an estate agency in London which is very lucrative, in a rich area and he says the Brexit is having an effect as foreign investment has reduced due to uncertainty and local investment is reduced as no one is sure how the banks will be affected by a Brexit.


http://richardhenry.co.uk/a-good-time-to-go-against-the-flow/
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Re: Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

Post by Tokyo Sexwale @ Tue May 10, 2016 11:42 am

Adam Ansel wrote:About time too:
http://www.cityam.com/240634/trying-to- ... -is-rising

Just wait till interest rates start going up. Looking at inflation trends they should have already started raising them.

I can't see interest rates rising for a long time especially if another recession looms which there's talk of.

You don't understand the market which is apparent by the use of the word bubble. I assume that you rent for more than one reason. I also assume you'll come back with a statement to try and establish your credentials as wealthy which no one will believe because you're so stupid.
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Re: Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

Post by Adam Ansel @ Tue May 10, 2016 12:35 pm

Tokyo Sexwale wrote:I can't see interest rates rising for a long time especially if another recession looms which there's talk of.

You don't understand the market which is apparent by the use of the word bubble. I assume that you rent for more than one reason. I also assume you'll come back with a statement to try and establish your credentials as wealthy which no one will believe because you're so stupid.


You obviously don't understand monetarism and the remit of the MPC.
You can learn here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_Policy_Committee
Andrew Sentance is a superstar economist, read what he has to say about interest rates: http://pwc.blogs.com/economics_in_busin ... o-low.html

As for the market, I meant bubble as in the South Sea Bubble, Dutch tulip mania and the Dotcom boom. Housing prices are now a ridiculous multiple of earnings.
You can learn about this here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble

I regard educating retards to be part of my public duty, so there is no need to thank me for helping you like this.
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Re: Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

Post by Tokyo Sexwale @ Tue May 10, 2016 12:40 pm

With your Wikipedia links you're really spoiling me.

I fully understand what a bubble is. Please explain how it applies to the following steady and constant price increase:
Image

Wiki describes a bubble thus

An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, a speculative mania or a balloon) is trade in an asset at a price or price range that strongly deviates from the corresponding asset's intrinsic value.

There's very little speculative in buying a home and the market value of a house has ALWAYS deviated from its market value. That's why you're the cretin.
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Re: Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

Post by FurDonga @ Tue May 10, 2016 12:49 pm

Tokyo Sexwale wrote:With your Wikipedia links you're really spoiling me.

I fully understand what a bubble is. Please explain how it applies to the following steady and constant price increase:
Image

Wiki describes a bubble thus

An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, a speculative mania or a balloon) is trade in an asset at a price or price range that strongly deviates from the corresponding asset's intrinsic value.

There's very little speculative in buying a home and the market value of a house has ALWAYS deviated from its market value. That's why you're the cretin.



That looks awfully like a graph of a bubble that's just peaked . The rise in house prices was driven by a rise in credit availability and that's still a lot tighter than pre crash . Time to get out of property maybe ? Nope I wouldn't cash out of property quite yet but I'd be very wary of sinking any more money in that sector. That's in the short and medium term of course.

But Ansell IS a cretin.
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Re: Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

Post by Tokyo Sexwale @ Tue May 10, 2016 12:50 pm

FurDonga wrote:
Tokyo Sexwale wrote:With your Wikipedia links you're really spoiling me.

I fully understand what a bubble is. Please explain how it applies to the following steady and constant price increase:
Image

Wiki describes a bubble thus

An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, a speculative mania or a balloon) is trade in an asset at a price or price range that strongly deviates from the corresponding asset's intrinsic value.

There's very little speculative in buying a home and the market value of a house has ALWAYS deviated from its market value. That's why you're the cretin.



That looks awfully like a graph of a bubble that's just peaked . The rise in house prices was driven by a rise in credit availability and that's still a lot tighter than pre crash . Time to get out of property maybe ? Nope I wouldn't cash out of property quite yet but I'd be very wary of sinking any more money in that sector. That's in the short and medium term of course.

But Ansell IS a cretin.


I though someone would mention cheap credit. That's why I showed a graph that ends juuuust before the cheap credit came in.

Eta just noticed you didn't mention it. Damn I was all excited too.
Last edited by Tokyo Sexwale on Tue May 10, 2016 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

Post by Tokyo Sexwale @ Tue May 10, 2016 12:56 pm

On a serious note furd, how often have people said exactly that over the last ten years?
While mortgages remain affordable and cheaper than renting, and prices continue to increase or hold firm, then I can't see why people would hold off buying. The vast majority of people buy as their home and not as an investment and so the 'hold off on property' thing makes no sense to me. If you're talking about Landlords, then yield is far more important than the value, to most so again, who should be holding off? Speculators maybe? I'd be inclined to agree.
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Re: Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

Post by Hooli @ Tue May 10, 2016 1:02 pm

Most of the 'value' in property is as a home or the income it generates from rent, rather than the resale price. Which is what TS just said isn't it?
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Re: Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

Post by thekungfury @ Tue May 10, 2016 4:19 pm

Adam do you want to have a bet?

Taking the Nationwide UK average house price for May 2016 do you think it'll be higher or lower by May 2017?

Obviously you think lower seeing as it's about the burst. I'll take higher.

You can choose the money/charity/forfeit/whatever.
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Re: Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

Post by Doctor Congo @ Tue May 10, 2016 4:37 pm

If you lose, I reckon you should have to sit through a slide show of his holiday snaps.
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Re: Looks like the house price bubble is starting to burst

Post by Rod Rammage @ Tue May 10, 2016 5:44 pm

In other interesting and related news, I see that Nationwide will now give you a mortgage to pay off by the time you're 85.

Which means a 60 year old could get a 25 year mortgage!
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